OK Boomer,

Time's up

In March of 2020 some have proposed ending the social distancing currently in place because the cost of the resultant increase in coronavirus deaths among the old would be less than the cost to society of a crippled economy. This is an excellent example of the logical fallacy known as "begging the question." Begging the question refers to assuming the answer to some point without actually addressing it. In this case it involves the assumption that ending social distancing will result in a quick economic recovery. This assumption is not necessarily true and could easily prove to be false.

A Reign of Terror

Is bad for business

First, it ignores the social and economic disruption of allowing the unchecked spread of COVID-19. While there is a wide spread of expert opinion on every aspect of this pandemic, all agree that ending social distancing will cause a spike in deaths and stress on our medical system. Even if this spike is less than catastrophic, which is by no means assured, there still will be appreciable economic effects. Added to that are the effects of fear and even panic in the general population. The degree of disruption is unknowable but it is not legitimate to simply assume that it would be negligible.

One Can Have Two Diseases

Cure one and the other remains

Second, this argument assumes that, without the coronavirus, the economy would be normal. This assumption is demonstrably false. Our current situation is the collision of two "black swans" and if we could remove one, the other would remain. Our economy developed abnormal stresses last September, long before the first coronavirus case appeared. Since then, the Federal Reserve has been hurling ever increasing amounts of money into the repo markets and yet the problems remain. History tells that expansions are followed by contractions and this was the longest expansion on record. The length of the expansion facilitated the accumulation of many one-way bets throughout the financial system which will necessarily turn toxic when the sure thing becomes a looser.

Time

Heals all wounds

Third, some forms of this argument call for "keeping America for your children and grandchildren." This assumes that economic troubles today will persist indefinitely. This assumption is almost certainly not true. The great depression lasted for about 10 years. The great recession of 2008 about the same. The current economic convulsions could very well be extreme, but they will not last forever. At some point we will return to stability. Perhaps then we will have a better organized society than the present one due to the lessons we are learning now.

Rational

Vs irrational

So this proposition cannot be rationally evaluated without taking into consideration the implicit supporting premises which are presumed true without ever explicitly acknowledging or addressing them. Call it sloppy or call it dishonest, the result is to debase the quality of public discussion.